* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 66 69 74 77 75 67 54 46 41 37 34 31 29 27 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 66 59 64 67 64 41 31 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 68 62 65 70 67 42 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 12 9 11 7 17 26 37 53 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -2 0 -3 5 2 10 8 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 11 5 334 322 315 254 258 266 255 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.0 28.3 27.3 25.6 25.0 22.4 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 168 165 153 142 130 114 110 94 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 159 156 144 133 120 105 103 88 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 7 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 65 64 64 65 65 67 66 63 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 19 19 20 21 21 18 14 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 53 42 46 35 11 0 -14 -15 70 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 34 36 27 13 15 32 81 141 178 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 5 -1 -2 22 65 106 154 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 291 299 212 89 -40 170 389 23 -281 -392 -146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.3 21.0 22.9 25.6 29.1 32.9 36.7 40.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.9 84.6 85.4 86.3 87.3 89.1 90.3 89.7 86.4 81.2 76.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 12 12 13 16 20 26 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 77 106 116 71 36 19 12 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -20. -22. -24. -27. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. -0. -5. -10. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 19. 22. 20. 12. -1. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.4 83.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 9.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.65 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.55 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.48 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.71 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.28 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 43.9% 30.7% 21.7% 13.2% 27.9% 19.0% 15.8% Logistic: 14.4% 37.2% 24.5% 22.7% 14.7% 34.6% 27.8% 4.4% Bayesian: 8.9% 34.9% 9.5% 2.8% 1.0% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 14.9% 38.7% 21.6% 15.7% 9.6% 22.0% 15.9% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/26/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 66 59 64 67 64 41 31 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 54 59 62 59 36 26 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 47 52 55 52 29 19 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 38 43 46 43 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT