* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 61 58 54 57 55 53 50 47 45 42 39 35 33 32 30 V (KT) LAND 65 63 61 58 54 57 55 53 50 47 45 42 39 35 33 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 59 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 17 21 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 10 14 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 203 217 204 203 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 16.6 13.6 15.6 15.7 11.1 11.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 78 75 78 78 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 73 75 75 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -55.0 -53.1 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.4 -0.1 3.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 49 49 52 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 38 37 36 34 46 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 160 176 210 286 341 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 113 89 93 75 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 6 18 -24 -65 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 402 501 794 1156 1497 800 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 43.2 45.1 47.0 49.3 51.6 56.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.8 47.0 42.3 37.2 32.1 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 39 39 40 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 25 CX,CY: 19/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 770 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -22. -27. -31. -34. -38. -41. -44. -46. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 19. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. -26. -30. -32. -33. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 43.2 51.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 61 58 54 57 55 53 50 47 45 42 39 35 33 32 30 18HR AGO 65 64 62 59 55 58 56 54 51 48 46 43 40 36 34 33 31 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 54 57 55 53 50 47 45 42 39 35 33 32 30 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 51 54 52 50 47 44 42 39 36 32 30 29 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT