* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/23/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 75 73 69 61 55 57 54 51 48 46 45 43 41 39 V (KT) LAND 75 75 75 75 73 69 61 55 57 54 51 48 46 45 43 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 75 75 76 75 71 62 55 55 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 24 23 18 9 9 14 24 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 2 1 4 0 5 2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 179 166 147 147 216 212 234 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 26.3 26.2 25.0 22.7 22.7 14.4 13.0 12.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 117 117 107 94 97 76 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 99 99 93 85 90 74 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -55.3 -56.0 -56.2 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.8 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 56 58 62 62 67 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 41 43 45 45 42 38 36 40 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 102 85 72 77 83 78 140 176 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 102 93 111 101 74 128 78 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 5 0 -4 11 12 -35 -2 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1013 918 827 773 695 478 663 1436 810 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.9 36.9 38.1 39.3 42.4 46.3 50.6 55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.6 61.3 61.0 59.7 58.4 53.0 44.3 33.3 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 13 16 21 31 39 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -15. -22. -29. -34. -37. -40. -44. -47. -48. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -6. -10. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -2. -6. -14. -20. -18. -21. -24. -27. -29. -30. -32. -34. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 34.9 61.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 417.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 4.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/23/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 4( 13) 3( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 75 75 75 73 69 61 55 57 54 51 48 46 45 43 41 39 18HR AGO 75 74 74 74 72 68 60 54 56 53 50 47 45 44 42 40 38 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 69 65 57 51 53 50 47 44 42 41 39 37 35 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 59 51 45 47 44 41 38 36 35 33 31 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT