* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 98 96 93 91 90 90 85 77 65 56 58 58 49 43 37 V (KT) LAND 100 100 98 96 93 91 90 90 85 77 65 56 58 58 49 43 37 V (KT) LGEM 100 100 97 93 90 87 84 83 77 66 57 55 57 56 52 53 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 9 9 14 14 19 19 6 15 34 41 34 15 12 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 0 0 -2 3 0 5 5 10 24 9 -2 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 328 314 291 238 215 181 174 157 168 189 212 217 201 134 165 143 143 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.7 25.6 26.2 25.0 15.6 16.0 12.4 11.5 11.3 10.4 10.0 6.8 POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 113 113 113 110 110 118 110 76 78 73 70 68 67 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 97 96 96 93 93 102 98 73 75 71 68 66 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.3 -55.5 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.8 -54.4 -51.0 -47.2 -45.5 -46.4 -48.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.9 -0.1 1.0 4.0 2.2 1.6 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 44 47 49 48 51 50 53 56 51 44 37 47 68 78 79 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 35 36 36 39 42 45 45 43 39 38 44 47 41 37 34 850 MB ENV VOR 175 166 162 131 117 97 85 83 89 141 161 373 463 450 434 304 217 200 MB DIV -11 8 13 22 22 43 99 91 96 77 98 95 55 58 21 -9 -93 700-850 TADV -1 0 5 1 2 3 6 -4 38 17 36 -119 -16 15 -8 -42 -49 LAND (KM) 1348 1391 1436 1375 1303 1161 1002 843 747 500 776 1418 1073 848 687 573 610 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.3 31.9 33.3 34.9 36.9 39.4 42.6 46.5 51.1 54.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 60.8 61.3 61.6 61.9 62.1 62.0 60.6 56.6 50.5 42.7 33.6 26.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 16 24 31 36 33 25 19 17 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -25. -34. -43. -53. -60. -66. -72. -78. -81. -84. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 1. 4. 4. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 7. 4. -1. -4. 3. 6. -1. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -15. -23. -35. -44. -42. -42. -51. -57. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 29.5 60.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 671.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 4.8% 3.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/22/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 14( 47) 12( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 100 98 96 93 91 90 90 85 77 65 56 58 58 49 43 37 18HR AGO 100 99 97 95 92 90 89 89 84 76 64 55 57 57 48 42 36 12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 91 89 88 88 83 75 63 54 56 56 47 41 35 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 87 85 84 84 79 71 59 50 52 52 43 37 31 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 79 78 78 73 65 53 44 46 46 37 31 25 IN 6HR 100 100 91 85 82 81 80 80 75 67 55 46 48 48 39 33 27 IN 12HR 100 100 98 89 83 79 78 78 73 65 53 44 46 46 37 31 25