* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 102 99 97 93 92 90 86 81 73 63 54 60 57 50 44 V (KT) LAND 100 104 102 99 97 93 92 90 86 81 73 63 54 60 57 50 44 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 99 94 91 88 83 82 78 71 60 57 55 57 56 55 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 9 9 10 16 16 18 13 4 17 34 40 20 6 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -1 0 -2 1 0 5 1 8 11 25 5 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 36 343 311 286 239 204 158 168 150 164 196 217 225 177 102 189 196 SST (C) 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.5 26.4 24.6 21.3 16.9 16.7 13.1 11.9 10.9 10.3 6.1 POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 112 113 112 112 108 118 105 89 79 78 73 71 68 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 96 96 96 95 94 91 101 93 82 75 75 70 68 66 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.8 -55.1 -54.6 -50.3 -46.4 -45.8 -47.1 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.3 -0.1 2.2 3.2 2.0 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 43 45 48 49 50 50 51 55 53 48 45 37 58 73 81 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 34 34 35 37 39 41 44 44 42 39 37 44 44 39 35 850 MB ENV VOR 175 175 164 153 126 96 86 66 75 84 138 170 393 421 431 379 262 200 MB DIV 31 1 8 20 27 23 93 78 86 66 92 104 67 71 63 9 -51 700-850 TADV 5 -1 -1 6 3 5 2 1 5 1 28 13 -67 -1 50 -22 -63 LAND (KM) 1370 1396 1427 1431 1357 1205 1061 914 822 656 570 1107 1365 897 731 654 751 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.9 30.4 31.1 31.7 33.1 34.4 36.0 38.1 40.8 44.0 47.7 51.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.7 60.2 60.7 60.9 61.2 61.6 61.8 61.1 58.4 53.8 46.9 38.0 30.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 12 19 26 33 34 30 26 21 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -25. -35. -44. -52. -60. -66. -71. -77. -80. -83. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 5. 7. 5. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 5. -0. -4. 5. 3. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -1. -3. -7. -8. -10. -14. -19. -27. -37. -46. -40. -43. -50. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 29.4 59.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -3.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 644.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 6.5% 4.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 24( 41) 20( 53) 14( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 102 99 97 93 92 90 86 81 73 63 54 60 57 50 44 18HR AGO 100 99 97 94 92 88 87 85 81 76 68 58 49 55 52 45 39 12HR AGO 100 97 96 93 91 87 86 84 80 75 67 57 48 54 51 44 38 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 84 83 81 77 72 64 54 45 51 48 41 35 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 77 76 74 70 65 57 47 38 44 41 34 28 IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 84 83 81 77 72 64 54 45 51 48 41 35 IN 12HR 100 104 102 93 87 83 82 80 76 71 63 53 44 50 47 40 34