* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 85 84 84 83 84 85 84 82 80 71 65 62 65 58 49 V (KT) LAND 80 83 85 84 84 83 84 85 84 82 80 71 65 62 65 58 49 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 84 83 82 81 81 78 77 73 68 60 57 57 57 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 9 10 10 15 17 20 8 12 25 51 56 18 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 0 0 0 -3 6 0 4 5 8 21 4 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 147 53 323 309 271 204 189 170 150 164 182 205 222 184 122 131 213 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.5 25.6 24.6 22.1 19.2 15.4 11.8 11.5 10.6 8.5 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 112 112 113 112 111 109 111 106 93 84 77 72 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 99 96 96 97 95 93 92 96 94 86 80 74 71 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.4 -55.1 -55.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -53.7 -49.1 -47.4 -48.3 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.8 -0.1 1.6 3.1 3.1 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 8 6 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 40 42 46 49 49 49 48 53 52 53 46 34 37 64 77 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 35 34 35 35 38 40 43 43 43 40 39 42 48 44 39 850 MB ENV VOR 177 174 176 171 162 119 95 93 82 76 104 123 229 417 434 386 236 200 MB DIV 62 35 4 24 14 30 55 69 103 76 77 76 73 41 58 45 32 700-850 TADV 10 2 -1 1 11 3 3 2 -2 19 21 16 -135 -141 25 -2 -40 LAND (KM) 1374 1375 1381 1424 1447 1305 1164 1032 907 809 617 794 1362 995 644 589 693 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.3 29.7 30.3 30.9 32.2 33.5 34.8 36.6 38.7 41.3 44.3 48.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.7 59.4 60.1 60.5 60.9 61.3 61.5 61.3 59.8 56.8 51.3 43.5 34.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 8 13 20 28 35 38 33 24 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -25. -30. -34. -38. -43. -47. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 5. 1. -4. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 7. 1. -0. 2. 8. 3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 11. 14. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -9. -15. -18. -15. -22. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 28.9 58.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 518.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 5.6% 4.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 1.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 9( 24) 9( 31) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 83 85 84 84 83 84 85 84 82 80 71 65 62 65 58 49 18HR AGO 80 79 81 80 80 79 80 81 80 78 76 67 61 58 61 54 45 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 75 74 75 76 75 73 71 62 56 53 56 49 40 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 69 70 71 70 68 66 57 51 48 51 44 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 83 74 68 65 64 65 66 65 63 61 52 46 43 46 39 30 IN 12HR 80 83 85 76 70 66 67 68 67 65 63 54 48 45 48 41 32