* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/21/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 79 82 84 86 88 87 88 85 82 72 59 35 59 46 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 79 82 84 86 88 87 88 85 82 72 59 35 59 39 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 78 80 81 81 81 80 78 77 73 67 57 49 45 51 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 12 2 7 10 15 17 21 20 19 14 27 51 59 62 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -5 0 3 -3 7 4 0 3 0 17 10 16 20 SHEAR DIR 170 167 142 93 314 272 213 194 187 168 166 170 192 210 210 225 216 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.6 26.0 24.5 23.1 19.6 17.9 14.3 13.5 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 124 120 117 116 114 112 109 114 104 98 85 81 75 74 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 115 107 102 100 99 96 94 91 97 92 89 80 77 72 71 71 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -55.6 -55.4 -55.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 -55.9 -54.8 -51.1 -50.1 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.2 3.4 1.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 44 44 44 45 50 48 48 50 52 54 55 49 38 30 41 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 33 33 33 33 34 36 38 42 42 42 38 33 20 48 45 850 MB ENV VOR 166 163 171 174 171 155 108 88 71 77 69 102 101 143 182 40 -45 200 MB DIV 71 72 67 42 13 22 26 50 72 93 116 82 59 30 -18 10 36 700-850 TADV 22 22 7 2 0 10 2 1 3 -3 2 -52 -53 -154 -234 -31 -33 LAND (KM) 1468 1447 1432 1433 1438 1436 1284 1148 1025 911 820 645 656 1213 1223 477 -72 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.8 29.3 29.7 30.1 31.2 32.5 33.7 34.9 36.3 38.3 40.9 43.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.3 57.3 58.3 59.0 59.7 60.5 61.0 61.3 61.2 60.4 57.7 52.9 45.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 7 7 7 6 6 7 11 18 27 32 35 34 33 32 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 7 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 9. 9. 8. 2. -6. -22. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 22. 23. 20. 17. 7. -6. -30. -6. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.3 56.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 10.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.74 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.57 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 3.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.48 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.0% 37.7% 28.4% 21.4% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 26.1% 22.2% 4.7% 0.9% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 9.7% 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.0% 21.3% 17.4% 8.8% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/21/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 5( 7) 8( 14) 9( 22) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 71 76 79 82 84 86 88 87 88 85 82 72 59 35 59 39 18HR AGO 65 64 69 72 75 77 79 81 80 81 78 75 65 52 28 52 32 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 69 71 73 72 73 70 67 57 44 20 44 24 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 60 62 64 63 64 61 58 48 35 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT