* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 72 76 80 83 87 89 86 87 85 81 74 62 31 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 72 76 80 83 87 89 86 87 85 81 74 62 31 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 71 74 76 79 80 80 78 77 73 65 58 48 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 17 10 6 12 7 13 17 19 19 7 17 26 50 69 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -3 -5 -1 1 -1 1 1 0 -1 6 4 12 11 17 SHEAR DIR 193 177 171 132 87 307 215 197 170 182 147 188 187 203 209 212 224 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.6 25.5 25.2 19.3 19.1 16.1 15.4 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 133 127 121 117 115 114 113 109 111 110 83 83 78 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 116 116 109 103 99 97 95 94 92 96 98 78 79 75 74 72 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 -55.6 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -55.7 -55.7 -56.4 -55.6 -53.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 42 44 48 47 49 52 49 50 51 51 54 52 52 38 33 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 32 33 32 32 33 34 37 38 42 42 41 39 34 13 5 850 MB ENV VOR 165 167 167 172 175 161 129 104 95 83 85 65 91 87 100 133 41 200 MB DIV 77 75 76 68 46 27 26 40 79 59 102 67 84 82 25 -6 12 700-850 TADV 34 26 25 7 1 6 7 2 0 2 -10 0 -34 -79 -120 -320 -158 LAND (KM) 1454 1436 1427 1421 1420 1458 1407 1266 1154 1045 926 799 606 851 1453 995 230 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.0 28.5 29.0 29.4 30.3 31.5 32.7 33.7 34.8 36.6 39.0 41.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.3 57.2 57.9 58.7 59.7 60.4 60.9 61.1 60.9 59.4 56.3 50.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 6 5 8 14 21 28 33 36 36 34 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 20 13 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. -0. -6. -14. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 10. 8. 4. -4. -28. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 32. 34. 31. 32. 30. 26. 19. 7. -24. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.4 55.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 9.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.66 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.10 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.56 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.48 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.58 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 38.9% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 19.6% 15.7% 4.2% 0.8% 3.7% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.8% 0.2% 2.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 19.6% 14.6% 1.8% 0.3% 8.6% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 7( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 61 67 72 76 80 83 87 89 86 87 85 81 74 62 31 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 60 65 69 73 76 80 82 79 80 78 74 67 55 24 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 60 64 67 71 73 70 71 69 65 58 46 15 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 53 56 60 62 59 60 58 54 47 35 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT