* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 50 55 61 68 73 77 81 84 84 86 86 79 66 52 V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 50 55 61 68 73 77 81 84 84 86 86 79 66 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 46 49 56 62 67 72 74 75 74 72 70 62 52 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 9 14 15 5 15 8 12 14 12 13 5 24 28 38 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 1 2 2 1 1 7 5 9 9 SHEAR DIR 220 237 209 200 209 93 315 281 244 200 163 155 197 184 195 206 240 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.6 23.8 18.7 16.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 129 127 129 122 117 116 114 115 113 110 108 107 103 82 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 113 112 111 113 105 100 98 96 96 96 95 96 96 94 77 72 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.5 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -54.9 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.7 -56.0 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 47 44 45 46 47 48 48 44 45 45 47 48 47 38 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 30 30 32 30 31 32 33 34 37 38 40 42 41 35 29 850 MB ENV VOR 156 165 166 169 175 175 170 142 123 130 117 115 78 55 80 85 40 200 MB DIV 26 63 72 56 59 51 27 31 55 64 44 44 56 78 130 19 -9 700-850 TADV 11 23 25 24 30 0 5 6 2 3 0 0 9 -9 -10 -36 -148 LAND (KM) 1350 1356 1366 1351 1342 1328 1365 1427 1389 1284 1167 1029 933 767 714 1134 1555 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.9 26.4 27.0 27.5 28.4 29.4 30.4 31.3 32.2 33.5 35.2 37.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.3 55.7 56.4 57.2 58.7 59.8 60.7 61.3 61.7 61.4 60.2 57.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 8 13 19 25 29 31 29 HEAT CONTENT 30 23 17 11 11 7 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. -2. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 9. 10. 12. 10. 1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 21. 28. 33. 37. 41. 44. 44. 46. 46. 39. 26. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.3 55.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.43 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.7% 9.8% 7.5% 6.4% 10.4% 12.4% 19.1% Logistic: 2.0% 8.7% 7.2% 1.8% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.8% 5.7% 3.1% 2.2% 3.9% 4.3% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/20/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 46 50 55 61 68 73 77 81 84 84 86 86 79 66 52 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 52 58 65 70 74 78 81 81 83 83 76 63 49 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 45 51 58 63 67 71 74 74 76 76 69 56 42 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 41 48 53 57 61 64 64 66 66 59 46 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT