* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 65 58 50 43 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 56 43 36 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 55 43 35 31 28 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 35 34 34 36 40 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 2 0 0 1 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 260 266 261 264 271 275 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.0 24.8 24.4 24.0 24.2 23.4 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 99 104 101 98 100 95 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 88 91 88 86 87 83 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -49.4 -49.6 -50.0 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 6 5 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 36 38 40 41 38 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 27 23 19 15 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 4 49 61 18 -13 8 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 55 46 44 19 19 13 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 22 11 14 8 21 46 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -29 -145 -246 -297 -381 -506 -669 -673 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.0 31.1 32.2 33.0 33.8 35.3 36.9 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.0 92.3 91.7 90.8 90.0 88.1 85.9 83.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 14 CX,CY: 5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -22. -27. -32. -35. -38. -41. -44. -46. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -27. -30. -32. -33. -35. -36. -38. -40. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -5. -8. -13. -23. -30. -33. -35. -37. -38. -38. -37. -36. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -17. -25. -32. -43. -60. -74. -82. -88. -92. -95. -99.-102.-105.-109.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.0 93.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.20 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 615.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 56 43 36 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 61 54 50 46 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 12HR AGO 75 72 71 64 60 56 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 61 57 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT