* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 101 95 84 63 43 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 105 101 95 84 44 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 107 102 93 82 43 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 23 27 35 31 35 35 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 9 12 6 3 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 238 243 239 248 265 267 281 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.1 24.8 24.5 23.8 24.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 140 134 126 104 102 97 98 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 124 119 111 92 89 85 85 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.2 -50.0 -50.4 -49.9 -49.9 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 4 6 6 3 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 57 53 50 43 40 44 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 31 33 31 27 20 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -1 1 18 1 31 2 -33 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 43 28 35 34 32 21 4 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 19 16 17 16 11 13 24 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 375 334 239 133 3 -218 -347 -473 -659 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.4 27.4 28.6 29.7 31.8 33.5 35.0 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.5 93.6 93.6 93.3 93.0 91.8 90.1 88.2 86.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 22 19 12 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -14. -23. -36. -47. -55. -61. -65. -68. -72. -74. -75. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -15. -22. -25. -24. -25. -22. -19. -17. -15. -13. -11. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -5. -14. -23. -33. -35. -37. -38. -38. -37. -36. -34. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -10. -21. -42. -62. -79. -99.-106.-110.-113.-112.-108.-106.-106.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 25.3 93.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 602.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.6% 6.3% 4.8% 4.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 18.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/09/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 23( 44) 9( 49) 0( 49) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 30 0( 30) 0( 30) 0( 30) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 101 95 84 44 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 100 94 83 43 31 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 95 84 44 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 84 44 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 46 34 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 72 60 56 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 IN 12HR 105 105 101 92 86 82 70 66 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38