* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 99 95 90 72 54 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 102 99 95 90 56 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 102 100 95 88 55 35 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 22 25 33 31 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 9 9 14 3 2 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 218 238 242 239 259 262 277 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.3 23.9 24.3 23.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 141 134 128 98 100 98 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 125 119 114 88 88 85 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.3 -50.5 -50.0 -49.8 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 6 4 5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 62 58 52 48 39 44 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 30 31 33 30 24 18 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 18 3 1 26 -10 36 -46 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 45 33 31 35 41 39 16 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 11 19 16 20 16 13 27 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 431 369 319 231 134 -132 -303 -443 -621 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.4 26.3 27.4 28.5 30.9 33.0 34.6 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.2 93.6 93.9 93.8 93.6 92.6 91.1 89.2 87.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 50 24 22 13 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -2. -9. -18. -29. -39. -46. -51. -54. -57. -61. -63. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -18. -19. -20. -18. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -9. -18. -27. -29. -30. -31. -31. -31. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -1. -5. -10. -28. -46. -65. -82. -88. -91. -94. -93. -90. -89. -89. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 24.4 93.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 472.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.6% 6.4% 4.6% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 22.8% 2.0% 1.9% 2.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.2% 2.8% 2.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/08/20 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 12( 46) 0( 46) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 14 1( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 102 99 95 90 56 36 30 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 96 92 87 53 33 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 92 87 53 33 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 85 51 31 25 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 47 27 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 102 93 87 84 59 39 33 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 102 99 90 84 80 60 54 52 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24