* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 30 29 29 31 33 35 38 39 39 39 40 42 44 46 50 V (KT) LAND 35 31 30 29 29 31 33 35 38 39 39 39 40 42 44 46 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 28 27 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 9 14 16 13 5 6 8 11 11 11 5 6 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 1 0 -1 -1 -6 -2 -2 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 233 231 159 123 133 150 157 155 150 94 138 151 168 234 287 335 43 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 149 151 151 152 153 152 150 149 146 144 144 143 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 54 53 57 57 54 57 59 59 56 55 53 52 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -11 -1 -2 2 28 38 40 38 28 28 22 26 33 36 49 55 200 MB DIV -2 0 7 -8 -18 -10 -17 -11 19 31 71 48 32 -4 -12 1 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 -1 -3 -5 -1 0 0 1 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 622 621 620 620 620 625 645 663 691 732 781 822 847 894 947 1026 1121 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.8 15.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.2 107.2 107.2 107.2 107.4 107.8 108.6 109.5 110.3 111.2 112.2 113.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 0 1 1 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 17 14 13 12 12 14 11 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 107.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.15 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.55 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.41 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 16.2% 13.6% 10.4% 7.8% 14.6% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.0% 4.8% 3.6% 2.6% 4.9% 4.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##