* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 52 57 61 61 63 64 65 66 65 64 64 63 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 52 57 61 61 63 64 65 66 65 64 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 45 46 49 52 56 59 61 63 64 65 64 62 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 7 6 4 8 11 13 10 11 12 15 10 16 11 12 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 3 2 -1 -2 3 3 3 -2 1 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 310 267 231 213 225 121 135 134 138 138 122 130 111 113 116 108 125 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 158 158 158 158 160 160 159 157 155 154 152 152 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 56 56 55 53 56 56 58 59 58 55 53 52 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 11 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -40 -37 -19 -19 -3 19 38 33 28 33 33 28 12 11 10 0 200 MB DIV 12 38 32 24 14 12 0 -17 -35 0 25 82 56 23 11 0 3 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 584 580 576 575 574 556 546 541 553 562 578 598 624 644 699 766 796 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 106.7 106.8 106.9 106.9 106.9 107.0 107.3 107.7 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 20 19 17 15 15 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 17. 21. 21. 23. 24. 25. 26. 25. 24. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.0 106.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.52 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.49 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.18 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 29.3% 21.0% 17.2% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.6% 36.1% 28.9% 18.1% 6.4% 13.2% 2.5% 5.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 10.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 9.5% 25.1% 17.0% 11.8% 6.0% 4.9% 1.3% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##