* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 53 57 61 61 60 59 59 62 62 62 62 62 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 53 57 61 61 60 59 59 62 62 62 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 48 50 50 51 53 56 58 58 58 60 61 63 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 5 4 5 9 6 11 12 9 8 6 9 13 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 2 3 4 0 0 0 -3 3 0 -3 -4 -8 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 315 327 301 242 202 91 123 111 124 143 145 115 140 118 155 188 194 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 158 157 156 157 157 159 159 160 157 155 153 152 149 147 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 61 58 60 58 55 53 56 60 61 65 63 61 58 58 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 11 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -61 -52 -39 -22 -9 0 14 25 24 26 17 21 17 21 15 15 200 MB DIV 26 14 43 34 17 7 -3 -13 -28 -19 13 27 56 44 44 4 6 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 600 595 590 595 600 618 602 591 587 596 605 610 629 653 690 748 818 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.1 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.1 106.4 106.6 106.7 106.9 106.9 106.8 106.9 107.1 107.6 108.1 108.6 109.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 23 21 19 17 15 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 17. 21. 21. 20. 19. 19. 22. 22. 22. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.6 106.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 28.1 to 8.6 0.50 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.27 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 37.3% 28.7% 20.7% 13.9% 26.3% 25.8% 19.5% Logistic: 27.6% 58.6% 48.1% 36.3% 11.9% 40.3% 16.0% 20.3% Bayesian: 2.1% 32.5% 5.5% 1.8% 1.2% 4.4% 3.3% 0.1% Consensus: 15.2% 42.8% 27.4% 19.6% 9.0% 23.7% 15.0% 13.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##