* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 75 84 92 98 109 114 118 112 108 95 79 62 56 52 50 48 V (KT) LAND 65 75 84 92 98 109 114 118 112 108 83 49 34 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 65 76 87 98 108 119 120 117 111 97 70 44 32 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 9 10 7 13 8 10 15 22 30 30 34 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 2 4 1 0 0 5 4 10 0 -1 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 65 61 80 91 149 137 172 200 247 242 263 260 263 264 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.4 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.5 27.2 24.6 24.3 24.8 24.7 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 172 173 173 173 162 157 154 143 126 102 101 104 103 97 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 170 173 173 173 154 143 138 126 111 91 89 90 90 84 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.0 -49.8 -49.9 -49.7 -49.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 5 6 5 6 4 4 2 4 2 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 73 74 76 75 74 65 61 60 56 53 50 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 20 20 22 26 26 31 30 34 33 30 24 24 24 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 88 81 83 83 78 40 35 33 37 20 -3 0 55 62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 53 37 39 71 52 66 31 24 15 57 49 97 69 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 0 0 4 9 5 8 18 33 40 48 31 57 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 232 283 346 335 211 11 183 347 382 182 -17 -146 -321 -513 -524 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.3 18.0 19.0 19.9 21.6 23.0 24.2 25.7 27.5 29.5 31.7 33.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.7 80.8 81.9 83.1 84.4 87.0 89.2 90.5 91.1 91.0 90.4 89.2 87.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 15 15 13 10 8 8 10 11 12 11 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 117 121 103 114 139 46 33 43 41 9 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 72.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 5. 3. 0. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 13. 13. 19. 17. 11. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 17. 25. 23. 17. 9. 2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -17. -19. -19. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 27. 33. 44. 49. 53. 47. 43. 30. 14. -3. -9. -13. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.6 79.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 20.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.66 9.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 118.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.81 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.73 6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 7.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.77 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.48 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 100.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.81 3.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 56% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 79% is 7.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 16.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 17.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 63% is 13.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.7% 79.3% 64.6% 63.7% 42.6% 62.9% 59.4% 32.4% Logistic: 43.1% 82.0% 74.2% 66.2% 57.6% 64.8% 51.1% 60.5% Bayesian: 15.4% 82.6% 46.8% 22.6% 28.2% 53.7% 8.8% 10.6% Consensus: 38.1% 81.3% 61.9% 50.8% 42.8% 60.4% 39.7% 34.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/06/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 9( 11) 21( 30) 28( 49) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 16( 19) 25( 39) 70( 82) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 75 84 92 98 109 114 118 112 108 83 49 34 29 28 27 27 18HR AGO 65 64 73 81 87 98 103 107 101 97 72 38 23 18 17 16 16 12HR AGO 65 62 61 69 75 86 91 95 89 85 60 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 61 72 77 81 75 71 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 65 75 84 75 69 65 70 74 68 64 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS