* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 37 33 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 44 37 33 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 39 35 31 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 31 32 33 36 41 40 39 40 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 6 3 3 11 5 2 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 255 248 243 242 236 241 236 244 249 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.8 23.9 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.5 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 99 100 103 103 102 106 104 106 108 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -53.1 -53.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 40 40 42 38 37 30 28 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 23 23 21 17 16 16 14 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 13 13 1 -11 -32 -20 -12 -22 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -9 -25 -26 3 29 28 31 1 -16 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 2 2 5 2 3 1 -3 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1838 1892 1916 1935 1957 1988 1872 1774 1692 1609 1539 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.5 132.3 133.0 133.7 134.4 135.9 137.1 138.1 138.9 139.7 140.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 6 5 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -27. -35. -42. -45. -47. -49. -52. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -22. -25. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -17. -22. -30. -40. -47. -57. -69. -78. -82. -86. -91. -95.-100.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.9 131.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 495.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##