* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 43 43 45 44 45 48 50 52 55 58 59 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 43 43 45 37 33 30 34 36 39 42 44 45 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 39 38 37 33 30 28 32 33 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 29 21 18 14 18 24 19 15 13 10 14 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -8 -6 -3 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 2 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 173 166 159 151 153 149 149 132 109 97 103 92 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.4 29.8 29.3 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 157 159 161 167 168 166 168 163 154 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 137 140 142 148 153 153 155 145 135 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 51 54 60 65 69 74 69 64 56 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 18 16 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 49 46 49 53 78 62 71 99 85 96 103 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 27 30 30 43 75 60 40 46 42 39 24 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 4 7 11 12 11 10 0 -5 -9 -5 -10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 139 119 100 86 76 37 -15 -24 -27 67 168 278 390 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 22.7 22.5 22.3 22.1 21.5 20.8 20.4 20.7 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.4 87.7 88.0 88.4 88.8 89.7 90.2 90.2 90.1 90.4 90.6 90.7 90.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 0 3 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 38 39 42 43 53 50 47 46 48 35 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.8 87.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.45 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.64 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.5% 9.0% 7.5% 6.8% 10.4% 11.0% 19.2% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.0% 3.3% 2.6% 2.3% 3.7% 3.8% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 43 43 45 37 33 30 34 36 39 42 44 45 47 49 18HR AGO 45 44 43 43 43 45 37 33 30 34 36 39 42 44 45 47 49 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 43 35 31 28 32 34 37 40 42 43 45 47 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 37 29 25 22 26 28 31 34 36 37 39 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT