* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/04/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 79 71 62 55 42 32 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 79 71 62 55 42 32 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 80 72 65 58 46 36 28 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 25 25 29 32 39 43 48 40 44 41 37 25 35 24 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 0 1 3 -1 -2 0 1 0 -1 0 -3 -6 -7 3 SHEAR DIR 245 253 251 242 243 247 252 244 238 242 241 245 258 282 351 24 251 SST (C) 25.5 24.9 24.8 25.1 24.8 23.8 24.1 24.0 23.8 23.8 23.9 23.7 23.4 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 117 111 110 113 110 99 102 101 98 97 98 97 95 94 92 90 85 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 -54.5 -53.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 46 44 41 38 38 36 30 29 30 28 30 33 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 33 31 31 29 26 22 21 20 17 13 9 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 52 46 34 34 15 -9 -20 -26 -21 -11 -4 -43 -77 -77 -93 200 MB DIV 27 19 18 15 -1 -2 0 19 23 23 -8 15 -33 -42 -51 -43 -40 700-850 TADV 1 5 11 7 4 10 9 7 1 2 1 3 5 1 0 3 -11 LAND (KM) 1591 1616 1644 1679 1716 1784 1807 1838 1841 1841 1828 1772 1659 1498 1293 1155 1019 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.3 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.7 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.5 129.1 129.8 130.4 131.6 132.8 134.1 134.9 135.4 135.7 135.6 135.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 4 3 3 5 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -16. -23. -29. -35. -40. -44. -49. -52. -56. -59. -63. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -26. -30. -34. -39. -43. -46. -48. -49. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -14. -15. -19. -24. -26. -27. -26. -26. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -28. -35. -48. -58. -67. -75. -81. -92.-104.-114.-122.-130.-138.-137. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 19.7 127.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/04/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 742.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/04/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##