* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 90 79 71 62 48 38 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 90 79 71 62 48 38 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 91 81 73 66 54 43 33 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 25 27 26 25 31 35 41 48 42 41 42 42 29 41 46 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 1 2 3 2 -1 -1 3 0 -1 -2 2 -2 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 242 243 252 248 240 244 250 252 242 251 241 246 250 280 334 343 316 SST (C) 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.9 25.2 24.4 24.2 24.3 24.1 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.5 22.8 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 110 111 114 105 103 104 101 99 100 100 98 98 97 90 86 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -53.8 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 50 50 49 46 44 38 37 37 33 29 31 33 34 40 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 31 33 31 29 27 24 21 19 17 13 11 8 6 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 46 51 47 28 25 -1 -15 -21 -23 -19 0 -22 -55 -44 -29 200 MB DIV 35 21 16 20 15 4 -12 3 7 18 1 7 -30 -44 -27 -7 -40 700-850 TADV 4 1 3 9 7 4 8 5 2 0 -1 3 -1 3 2 0 -32 LAND (KM) 1587 1598 1612 1644 1677 1760 1807 1835 1858 1871 1857 1815 1727 1529 1355 1142 946 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.5 25.3 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.6 128.1 128.6 129.2 129.8 131.1 132.4 133.6 134.5 135.2 135.6 135.8 135.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 3 4 5 8 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -27. -34. -42. -47. -53. -57. -61. -64. -67. -71. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -20. -22. -24. -27. -30. -36. -41. -44. -48. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -19. -21. -25. -27. -26. -27. -26. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -21. -29. -38. -52. -62. -72. -81. -90. -99.-110.-119.-126.-135.-145.-151. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.4 127.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 781.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.32 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##