* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/03/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 102 92 83 67 54 42 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 110 102 92 83 67 54 42 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 109 101 92 83 68 55 44 35 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 17 21 24 24 31 36 38 41 42 39 42 43 35 47 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 1 2 4 1 4 0 2 0 -1 -3 2 7 17 SHEAR DIR 254 245 247 251 260 248 255 253 249 245 251 239 241 234 234 334 320 SST (C) 26.8 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.3 25.3 24.6 24.2 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.7 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 123 120 115 115 107 103 106 102 102 102 101 101 101 102 90 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -52.2 -52.9 -53.3 -54.1 -54.1 -52.5 -51.7 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 58 57 52 50 48 46 42 38 38 34 31 29 34 37 37 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 34 33 34 32 30 28 23 21 19 16 13 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 71 65 56 55 58 38 33 17 2 -13 -26 -23 20 52 58 109 200 MB DIV 50 48 46 25 14 4 7 -2 1 14 1 1 15 37 39 37 17 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 3 3 9 4 8 4 3 1 0 6 -3 -53 -29 -46 LAND (KM) 1611 1619 1631 1641 1655 1709 1804 1858 1893 1928 1939 1925 1878 1772 1545 1327 1095 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.2 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.7 127.3 127.8 128.3 128.8 129.9 131.3 132.5 133.7 134.8 135.6 136.2 136.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 7 10 13 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -23. -33. -43. -52. -59. -66. -71. -74. -76. -80. -84. -89. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -18. -21. -25. -30. -36. -39. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -18. -20. -23. -25. -26. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -23. -32. -48. -61. -73. -85. -94.-102.-112.-122.-131.-136.-142.-152. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.1 126.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.38 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 831.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##