* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GAMMA AL252020 10/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 48 54 57 58 58 58 55 57 52 51 51 53 53 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 39 38 41 42 42 42 39 41 36 35 35 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 38 37 36 34 33 33 33 33 33 33 34 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 17 24 21 28 23 20 14 15 15 21 22 28 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 1 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 203 205 188 177 178 190 175 175 156 163 142 175 166 172 169 180 184 SST (C) 30.7 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 170 168 165 166 168 169 167 163 163 164 164 163 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 166 162 156 151 145 144 147 151 148 144 142 142 142 141 139 137 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 6 4 6 3 7 3 8 4 9 700-500 MB RH 81 76 71 64 61 50 48 47 48 50 54 60 66 69 73 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 19 18 18 16 15 13 13 10 10 5 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 92 88 90 82 63 48 14 11 4 28 44 50 53 62 69 104 200 MB DIV 90 78 70 84 105 59 32 22 46 47 70 53 29 19 23 37 67 700-850 TADV 4 9 10 11 10 2 1 3 10 8 7 5 6 4 8 4 2 LAND (KM) 182 121 61 17 -43 12 67 94 119 150 189 239 280 293 303 276 259 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.7 22.2 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.2 21.9 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.3 86.8 87.1 87.5 87.9 88.1 88.7 89.6 90.7 91.6 92.4 92.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 4 2 3 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 130 122 88 66 51 48 45 44 40 39 47 58 54 49 42 37 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. -0. -2. -5. -6. -12. -12. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. 20. 22. 17. 16. 16. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.8 85.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.54 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 91.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.62 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.49 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.98 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.52 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.57 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.80 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.5% 38.5% 22.7% 9.9% 9.3% 12.1% 14.2% 22.7% Logistic: 15.3% 42.2% 30.5% 12.4% 4.4% 4.8% 2.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 1.1% 0.7% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 11.3% 27.6% 18.8% 7.8% 4.8% 6.2% 5.9% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL252020 GAMMA 10/03/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 46 39 38 41 42 42 42 39 41 36 35 35 37 37 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 35 34 37 38 38 38 35 37 32 31 31 33 33 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 28 27 30 31 31 31 28 30 25 24 24 26 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT