* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 09/30/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 52 62 71 86 97 102 104 102 94 83 70 60 51 39 32 V (KT) LAND 40 45 52 62 71 86 97 102 104 102 94 83 70 60 51 39 32 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 57 65 80 94 103 104 96 79 64 52 43 37 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 6 7 5 8 3 4 8 13 16 22 24 37 38 45 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 2 1 1 3 0 -3 0 4 3 3 -3 5 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 49 54 65 98 92 46 61 180 206 230 230 251 238 247 236 236 232 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.0 26.3 25.3 24.9 24.0 24.1 23.8 23.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 154 154 149 150 148 145 127 116 111 102 102 99 99 98 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -51.9 -52.6 -51.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 72 73 70 71 71 65 59 51 48 47 49 47 45 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 21 24 28 31 34 37 39 38 36 33 32 31 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 50 63 70 77 89 81 90 91 82 59 54 42 43 64 77 63 64 200 MB DIV 103 110 114 112 105 73 70 58 92 57 38 0 15 6 26 16 8 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -4 -5 -5 -5 -7 -3 1 2 7 8 13 11 14 12 3 LAND (KM) 826 916 1014 1045 1097 1260 1388 1487 1562 1606 1674 1756 1835 1834 1814 1781 1760 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.6 17.7 18.9 20.0 20.9 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.5 112.9 114.4 115.8 118.7 121.3 123.6 125.6 127.4 129.1 130.6 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 17 27 20 18 15 14 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 15. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -8. -14. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 24. 30. 34. 32. 28. 21. 18. 15. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 22. 31. 46. 57. 62. 64. 62. 54. 43. 30. 20. 11. -1. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 110.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 10.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.79 7.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.40 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -8.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.43 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.89 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 38.3% 29.7% 21.0% 13.9% 29.2% 50.5% 55.6% Logistic: 4.9% 21.5% 15.2% 10.2% 1.6% 14.1% 8.5% 6.5% Bayesian: 3.1% 12.8% 10.5% 2.9% 0.5% 1.8% 1.6% 1.2% Consensus: 7.6% 24.2% 18.5% 11.4% 5.3% 15.0% 20.2% 21.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##