* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 45 43 42 42 37 31 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 45 43 42 42 37 31 27 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 45 42 39 35 31 26 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 6 8 10 8 8 13 18 19 22 27 31 34 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 2 4 4 8 4 6 3 1 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 343 356 19 330 317 312 265 226 255 256 270 273 268 261 287 311 351 SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.4 24.5 24.9 24.1 24.7 24.4 24.6 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 119 119 117 117 108 112 104 110 107 109 114 116 115 119 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -54.2 -55.2 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 53 52 46 41 37 34 31 33 29 28 25 21 22 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 20 20 20 21 20 18 15 14 11 10 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 24 40 48 36 36 39 32 37 41 37 26 14 -29 -45 -43 200 MB DIV -12 3 6 1 -11 -2 -8 -1 -24 -33 -14 -15 -23 -25 -9 -18 -6 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 7 7 9 7 5 -5 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 978 1041 1086 1132 1183 1329 1502 1694 1902 2057 1882 1644 1418 1221 1074 973 889 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.1 21.0 21.0 21.1 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.1 122.0 122.9 123.8 125.8 127.9 130.1 132.3 134.5 136.8 139.1 141.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -8. -14. -18. -24. -28. -32. -36. -39. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.9 120.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 6.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##