* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/22/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 37 38 39 44 42 40 37 31 27 23 21 17 15 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 37 38 39 44 42 40 37 31 27 23 21 17 15 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 37 35 34 33 31 29 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 5 6 10 9 8 9 6 13 16 17 19 21 23 25 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 4 3 6 9 7 7 4 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 34 34 17 343 340 321 310 276 259 242 259 258 273 267 254 280 299 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.5 25.7 25.8 26.1 25.9 25.8 24.7 25.2 24.4 24.9 24.6 24.5 25.0 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 128 120 121 123 122 121 109 115 107 112 109 107 112 116 119 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 62 60 59 59 57 53 49 43 39 35 32 32 33 33 33 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 24 23 22 19 17 15 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 28 26 24 24 37 44 49 47 52 52 67 63 58 40 22 5 200 MB DIV 21 14 6 9 12 5 -11 -4 -19 -9 -34 -24 -9 -10 -16 -21 -17 700-850 TADV -9 -2 2 2 4 6 7 7 3 5 0 2 1 0 2 0 3 LAND (KM) 858 893 938 998 1065 1156 1267 1399 1561 1739 1931 2090 1892 1694 1518 1343 1180 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.4 119.3 120.3 121.2 122.9 124.6 126.4 128.3 130.3 132.4 134.6 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. -0. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 4. 2. -0. -3. -9. -13. -17. -19. -23. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.7 117.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 28.1 to 8.6 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/22/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##