* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 75 65 55 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 75 65 55 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 81 73 61 51 39 30 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 41 39 34 38 39 44 27 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 7 -1 0 8 8 2 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 174 175 179 177 181 183 179 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 25.9 23.6 19.2 17.0 13.1 9.2 7.6 4.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 115 97 79 75 70 68 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 99 85 72 70 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.5 -48.9 -48.9 -49.4 -50.4 -50.3 -49.1 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 61 62 60 65 71 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 51 54 51 46 43 33 28 28 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 205 200 181 179 204 207 223 232 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 144 159 109 90 132 93 95 103 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 84 34 -2 -14 -23 -36 -53 -65 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 716 536 365 241 82 61 -52 404 795 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 39.3 40.9 42.5 44.1 48.0 52.1 56.7 61.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 62.5 62.8 62.5 62.3 60.1 56.9 53.3 49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 17 16 16 19 22 24 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 25 CX,CY: -8/ 23 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -7. -10. -17. -25. -34. -43. -51. -55. -59. -63. -67. -68. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -24. -25. -22. -21. -22. -24. -26. -29. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. -0. -3. -7. -16. -26. -31. -42. -45. -47. -48. -47. -46. -44. -42. -41. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -20. -30. -53. -75. -88. -99.-104.-109.-113.-118.-125.-129.-130.-132. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 37.6 62.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 54.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 5( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 75 65 55 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 77 67 57 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 71 61 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 65 46 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT