* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/21/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 42 40 37 34 34 31 28 23 23 23 22 22 21 22 V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 42 36 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 39 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 15 16 20 21 18 17 28 38 43 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -2 0 1 -1 0 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 251 235 239 261 263 253 239 234 230 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 154 150 146 147 151 148 152 155 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 130 125 121 121 125 124 127 130 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -51.5 -52.5 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 5 4 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 55 52 52 48 45 46 42 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 16 14 12 10 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 13 9 -13 7 -7 21 -22 -1 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 29 30 19 14 11 6 23 4 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 4 7 3 5 -1 3 0 5 -1 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 150 110 66 30 -6 -31 -36 -26 -71 -155 -208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.6 30.4 31.2 32.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.3 95.9 96.2 96.5 96.4 95.7 94.7 93.5 92.3 91.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 3 4 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 63 45 34 33 33 32 42 18 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -11. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -13. -17. -19. -23. -24. -25. -24. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -14. -17. -22. -22. -22. -23. -23. -24. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.6 94.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.47 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.81 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.55 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.42 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 15.4% 10.1% 8.5% 7.6% 10.3% 10.3% 10.8% Logistic: 1.9% 3.7% 3.6% 2.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.4% 4.6% 3.6% 2.6% 3.8% 3.5% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/21/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/21/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 43 42 36 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 37 32 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 34 29 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 29 24 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT