* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/20/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 105 103 104 98 92 87 68 43 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 105 105 103 104 98 92 87 68 43 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 105 103 101 97 96 95 83 54 36 29 32 36 37 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 8 6 21 47 45 47 42 42 38 45 42 40 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -3 -3 2 8 10 9 -3 11 1 0 -1 4 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 304 299 313 302 226 209 185 178 182 190 222 240 246 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.5 27.6 26.4 24.6 18.6 15.3 12.0 11.5 9.3 9.1 9.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 143 134 130 133 121 105 77 72 70 70 67 67 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 124 115 112 118 107 92 71 68 68 68 66 65 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -49.5 -48.9 -49.1 -50.0 -50.3 -51.1 -52.7 -55.9 -57.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 2.4 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.4 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 51 52 56 63 60 59 63 63 68 70 65 58 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 39 41 39 42 44 49 54 48 37 27 27 29 24 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 59 83 101 137 186 199 184 183 210 224 200 118 36 -12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 11 26 49 50 66 103 106 111 96 67 73 47 20 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 3 0 -1 24 86 49 -20 -15 -15 3 7 -2 42 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1075 1111 1156 1227 1300 1259 904 490 207 40 17 459 890 1279 1537 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.6 28.3 29.1 29.8 32.1 35.8 39.8 43.1 46.1 49.5 53.3 56.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 61.5 62.2 62.4 62.7 62.4 62.1 62.3 61.6 59.4 55.1 49.0 43.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 15 19 19 16 19 25 25 21 18 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 31 22 14 11 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -26. -38. -49. -59. -66. -72. -79. -83. -84. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -11. -14. -17. -17. -16. -17. -18. -19. -21. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 8. 14. 7. -8. -22. -24. -21. -28. -38. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -2. -1. -7. -13. -18. -37. -62. -83. -91. -92.-103.-116.-117.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 26.9 60.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 779.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.1% 5.6% 5.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/20/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 26( 61) 21( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 20 2( 22) 0( 22) 0( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 105 103 104 98 92 87 68 43 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 104 102 103 97 91 86 67 42 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 105 102 101 99 100 94 88 83 64 39 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 96 90 84 79 60 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 105 96 90 87 86 80 74 69 50 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 84 78 73 54 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 105 105 105 96 90 86 80 75 56 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS