* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILFRED AL232020 09/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 33 33 32 33 34 35 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 33 33 32 33 34 35 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 33 31 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 17 21 22 31 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 5 3 3 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 285 291 300 291 284 299 288 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 136 137 135 136 133 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 135 136 132 131 126 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 61 57 55 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 10 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 74 65 62 48 58 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 43 46 55 35 5 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 2 3 -1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1759 1679 1612 1554 1498 1397 1317 1256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.3 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.5 39.9 41.3 42.7 44.1 46.5 48.6 50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 12 9 11 13 38 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 38.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.72 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.28 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.4% 6.9% 5.2% 4.1% 6.4% 0.0% 7.6% Logistic: 0.9% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.0% 2.6% 1.9% 1.4% 2.3% 0.2% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL232020 WILFRED 09/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 34 33 33 32 33 34 35 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 32 32 31 32 33 34 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 29 28 29 30 31 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 23 24 25 26 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT