* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BETA AL222020 09/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 50 50 49 50 50 49 46 46 43 41 37 36 33 29 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 50 50 49 50 50 49 46 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 48 48 47 46 45 44 42 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 14 10 15 13 18 14 16 29 37 46 40 30 42 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 -2 -2 2 -3 -1 -2 0 2 -3 4 -1 1 -4 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 240 234 244 246 238 253 247 250 240 245 234 234 221 244 262 263 262 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.8 30.1 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 163 167 167 160 158 159 165 163 169 169 165 161 162 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 138 138 141 140 133 130 131 137 136 141 139 134 131 132 125 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 3 1 3 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 4 6 4 7 700-500 MB RH 56 52 49 49 50 53 60 57 55 49 52 50 50 42 41 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 20 20 18 18 16 14 11 11 10 11 10 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 50 30 18 19 24 -1 13 -10 0 -23 9 -41 1 -9 -8 -66 -90 200 MB DIV 47 35 20 14 35 34 44 25 29 17 28 20 20 -9 4 -4 4 700-850 TADV 11 7 8 1 6 10 10 12 1 5 3 14 0 2 0 6 12 LAND (KM) 336 326 317 276 234 155 103 51 15 1 -6 -35 -94 -143 -199 -303 -412 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.2 28.6 29.1 29.6 30.1 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 92.8 93.2 93.6 94.1 94.9 95.6 95.9 95.7 95.1 94.3 93.3 92.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 5 5 4 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 43 46 52 67 73 41 37 47 52 29 7 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -11. -16. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -19. -21. -23. -23. -24. -23. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -4. -4. -7. -9. -13. -14. -17. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.5 92.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.46 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.59 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.13 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.7% 9.7% 8.0% 7.0% 10.9% 12.9% 18.7% Logistic: 2.2% 6.8% 6.6% 7.5% 1.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.2% 5.5% 5.2% 2.8% 4.8% 4.5% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL222020 BETA 09/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL222020 BETA 09/19/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 50 50 49 50 50 49 46 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 49 50 50 49 50 50 49 46 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 46 47 47 46 43 32 28 25 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 39 40 40 39 36 25 21 18 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT