* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 114 112 107 102 99 94 90 78 56 35 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 114 114 112 107 102 99 94 90 78 51 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 115 114 111 107 96 95 97 88 61 39 32 33 35 40 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 10 14 15 6 16 40 47 44 40 39 43 40 33 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 1 0 -3 4 10 11 -3 4 1 5 6 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 235 260 278 272 288 322 238 195 183 181 194 209 208 227 243 259 271 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.0 27.9 26.1 26.5 17.9 16.2 13.2 8.5 10.0 10.0 9.4 8.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 149 149 146 124 137 118 122 76 72 69 66 65 64 63 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 134 133 128 108 120 104 106 71 68 66 64 64 62 61 60 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -49.2 -49.2 -48.8 -49.8 -50.4 -51.7 -53.0 -54.2 -56.1 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.1 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 44 46 45 47 55 61 61 57 65 61 62 71 67 56 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 41 41 42 40 40 41 47 53 52 42 33 25 26 26 24 19 850 MB ENV VOR 68 56 50 47 51 115 157 206 191 165 198 195 168 134 86 54 16 200 MB DIV 31 -2 19 15 1 61 71 106 190 87 133 94 71 55 31 8 6 700-850 TADV 14 14 8 -2 -2 2 10 12 38 -15 -7 -23 -16 10 18 3 8 LAND (KM) 1062 1069 1094 1132 1183 1333 1279 949 555 167 -3 -41 111 388 599 744 886 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.1 29.9 32.2 35.6 39.5 43.4 46.6 49.1 51.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.8 58.6 59.5 60.3 61.0 61.9 61.8 61.3 61.5 61.9 60.6 57.6 53.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 11 14 18 20 18 16 16 16 13 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 40 37 33 23 5 20 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -9. -18. -29. -39. -52. -62. -71. -78. -86. -91. -94. -96. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -5. -7. -12. -12. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. 6. 13. 11. -2. -16. -28. -26. -25. -26. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -8. -13. -16. -21. -25. -37. -59. -80. -98.-103.-106.-111.-122. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 24.4 57.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 915.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 6.4% 5.3% 3.6% 1.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 2.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/19/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 27( 65) 24( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 16 33( 44) 2( 45) 0( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 114 112 107 102 99 94 90 78 51 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 114 112 107 102 99 94 90 78 51 38 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 109 104 99 96 91 87 75 48 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 100 95 92 87 83 71 44 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 91 88 83 79 67 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 93 90 85 81 69 42 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 114 114 105 99 95 92 87 83 71 44 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS