* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 113 112 111 109 110 105 103 98 105 101 81 60 41 26 22 21 V (KT) LAND 115 113 112 111 109 110 105 103 98 105 101 81 55 36 21 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 111 110 109 107 99 94 96 96 79 49 36 32 32 30 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 13 16 14 9 7 7 30 43 44 31 29 37 40 41 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 -2 -4 1 -2 1 2 12 4 0 6 0 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 233 230 222 218 225 265 273 236 200 187 167 182 193 195 185 202 183 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 28.7 27.9 27.7 27.2 28.2 24.5 17.2 16.7 12.0 10.8 8.0 8.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 152 152 154 147 136 134 129 142 104 74 72 66 66 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 139 140 139 140 131 119 117 114 123 90 69 67 64 64 63 63 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.4 -49.9 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -48.7 -48.3 -48.4 -49.7 -51.1 -51.9 -50.6 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 45 45 46 45 51 58 56 51 59 61 64 70 73 69 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 38 39 39 43 40 41 41 53 55 47 37 29 23 24 29 850 MB ENV VOR 75 77 81 67 62 55 90 148 211 216 228 202 221 236 241 268 200 200 MB DIV 64 51 47 34 -2 6 32 79 61 85 128 95 112 80 84 82 81 700-850 TADV 13 12 16 18 18 -2 0 2 -15 54 41 -13 -6 9 -1 38 4 LAND (KM) 1101 1066 1046 1034 1041 1099 1201 1326 1094 723 397 76 40 97 -5 0 245 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.3 27.1 28.7 30.8 33.8 37.5 40.9 44.1 46.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.8 56.5 57.3 58.1 59.0 60.7 62.1 62.7 62.5 62.2 62.2 62.5 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 12 11 10 13 17 17 16 15 13 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 37 31 27 29 45 34 14 16 9 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -13. -24. -33. -41. -49. -58. -65. -74. -79. -84. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -9. -8. -6. -1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 3. 4. 18. 22. 9. -5. -17. -24. -22. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -10. -12. -17. -10. -14. -34. -55. -74. -89. -93. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 21.7 55.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 875.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 28( 65) 29( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 78 87( 97) 96(100) 84(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 113 112 111 109 110 105 103 98 105 101 81 55 36 21 28 30 18HR AGO 115 114 113 112 110 111 106 104 99 106 102 82 56 37 22 29 31 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 108 109 104 102 97 104 100 80 54 35 20 27 29 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 103 104 99 97 92 99 95 75 49 30 15 22 24 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 97 92 90 85 92 88 68 42 23 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 113 104 98 95 95 90 88 83 90 86 66 40 21 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 113 112 103 97 93 88 86 81 88 84 64 38 19 DIS DIS DIS