* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 122 121 120 117 115 114 111 107 100 98 101 84 63 46 33 22 V (KT) LAND 120 122 121 120 117 115 114 111 107 100 98 101 84 63 47 33 27 V (KT) LGEM 120 124 124 122 121 116 113 105 98 95 94 86 58 39 34 30 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 13 11 6 8 8 3 19 41 49 38 31 30 31 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 2 0 -1 1 -5 0 3 11 11 2 6 4 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 231 231 228 215 203 225 273 276 237 199 189 182 175 189 204 186 194 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.0 25.8 20.1 17.1 13.7 12.1 8.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 149 153 154 159 157 138 134 134 127 114 81 73 68 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 137 140 140 145 141 121 115 116 110 98 73 67 65 65 64 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -49.8 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -49.1 -48.4 -48.3 -49.7 -50.5 -51.1 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.7 1.3 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 47 45 44 44 44 46 52 61 58 47 47 51 57 67 69 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 35 37 41 41 42 41 42 42 41 48 56 49 38 29 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 97 78 73 79 82 67 58 95 147 194 199 215 205 204 221 215 224 200 MB DIV 60 42 41 61 54 0 20 25 69 65 78 123 84 90 88 64 64 700-850 TADV 12 15 15 13 13 9 0 0 2 8 24 36 5 4 -3 -1 -12 LAND (KM) 1222 1165 1119 1090 1073 1064 1113 1212 1301 1149 869 527 266 21 44 -22 106 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.8 25.5 27.3 28.9 30.8 33.0 36.0 39.5 42.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.3 55.0 55.8 56.5 57.2 58.9 60.8 62.4 63.0 62.9 62.6 62.1 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 12 12 10 10 13 17 16 14 13 13 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 37 31 27 32 36 14 17 24 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -24. -34. -44. -51. -56. -63. -72. -78. -83. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -5. -1. 4. 6. 5. 3. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 11. 21. 11. -5. -16. -22. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -9. -13. -20. -22. -19. -36. -57. -74. -87. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 20.6 54.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.08 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 911.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.5% 13.8% 9.3% 5.3% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 15.3% 3.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.2% 5.7% 3.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/18/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 34( 56) 32( 70) 31( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 30 24( 47) 36( 66) 41( 80) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 122 121 120 117 115 114 111 107 100 98 101 84 63 47 33 27 18HR AGO 120 119 118 117 114 112 111 108 104 97 95 98 81 60 44 30 24 12HR AGO 120 117 116 115 112 110 109 106 102 95 93 96 79 58 42 28 22 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 107 105 104 101 97 90 88 91 74 53 37 23 17 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 99 98 95 91 84 82 85 68 47 31 17 DIS IN 6HR 120 122 113 107 104 104 103 100 96 89 87 90 73 52 36 22 16 IN 12HR 120 122 121 112 106 102 101 98 94 87 85 88 71 50 34 20 DIS