* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 112 111 110 107 110 109 107 104 97 98 96 82 65 51 37 V (KT) LAND 110 114 112 111 110 107 110 109 107 104 97 98 96 82 60 46 35 V (KT) LGEM 110 115 116 115 115 112 111 108 101 96 92 88 74 51 40 36 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 16 17 14 12 4 8 4 10 37 50 45 37 38 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 2 -2 0 0 -6 0 3 7 5 -2 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 248 248 235 230 219 195 302 287 283 218 190 200 179 195 209 221 220 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.6 28.8 28.4 27.2 26.4 28.0 24.4 17.5 14.2 12.4 7.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 142 142 149 154 154 163 149 142 127 119 139 103 75 70 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 132 132 137 142 141 148 131 123 110 104 120 90 70 66 65 64 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 -50.1 -49.1 -48.4 -48.2 -49.0 -50.1 -51.4 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 44 45 44 45 49 54 56 47 42 45 58 69 80 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 35 38 39 40 41 41 41 42 43 50 53 48 41 36 31 850 MB ENV VOR 107 99 73 74 81 70 62 54 124 165 199 186 177 166 164 149 150 200 MB DIV 69 51 32 38 80 3 25 9 48 23 62 78 102 81 93 72 76 700-850 TADV 14 11 12 15 10 16 5 0 0 4 -14 28 39 -11 -17 -3 2 LAND (KM) 1261 1208 1155 1105 1066 1037 1061 1142 1279 1218 1011 723 399 82 60 14 7 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 21.2 22.0 22.7 24.6 26.4 28.1 29.7 31.6 34.2 37.3 40.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 54.4 55.1 55.9 56.6 58.3 60.2 62.0 63.1 63.5 63.4 62.9 62.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 9 11 15 17 18 17 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 40 37 31 27 38 29 18 7 7 42 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -17. -25. -32. -38. -42. -47. -55. -61. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -5. -1. 4. 7. 7. 3. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 14. 17. 9. -1. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. 1. -0. -3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -12. -14. -28. -45. -59. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.7 53.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 811.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 26.7% 23.7% 17.1% 13.1% 6.0% 5.2% 3.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 28.2% 5.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.9% 9.6% 6.5% 4.5% 2.1% 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 29( 65) 27( 74) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 52 40( 71) 58( 88) 62( 95) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 114 112 111 110 107 110 109 107 104 97 98 96 82 60 46 35 18HR AGO 110 109 107 106 105 102 105 104 102 99 92 93 91 77 55 41 30 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 104 101 104 103 101 98 91 92 90 76 54 40 29 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 99 96 99 98 96 93 86 87 85 71 49 35 24 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 88 91 90 88 85 78 79 77 63 41 27 16 IN 6HR 110 114 105 99 96 93 96 95 93 90 83 84 82 68 46 32 21 IN 12HR 110 114 112 103 97 93 96 95 93 90 83 84 82 68 46 32 21