* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 88 92 92 97 100 103 104 105 104 97 92 92 86 71 55 V (KT) LAND 85 86 88 92 92 97 100 103 104 105 104 97 92 92 86 71 55 V (KT) LGEM 85 86 87 88 90 96 101 103 105 103 99 90 82 73 56 43 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 9 11 14 9 11 1 8 3 6 31 51 53 40 38 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 4 -3 0 0 -4 2 0 0 1 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 259 256 247 244 229 212 193 127 306 312 244 204 209 190 191 209 211 SST (C) 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.4 28.5 29.0 29.1 29.6 29.3 28.8 27.6 27.0 27.3 24.9 19.6 16.9 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 130 137 142 144 152 154 163 157 148 132 125 129 106 80 74 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 122 127 132 133 141 142 147 139 129 114 108 111 92 73 69 66 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.2 -50.9 -50.0 -50.0 -49.7 -50.0 -49.0 -49.0 -48.9 -49.4 -49.4 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 47 47 45 45 44 44 45 45 53 61 57 45 38 42 60 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 34 35 35 39 41 41 41 42 43 41 43 49 52 47 41 850 MB ENV VOR 102 104 100 95 79 79 71 63 52 105 155 176 140 113 145 161 169 200 MB DIV 103 78 73 56 30 74 -5 16 1 51 32 27 8 60 110 70 44 700-850 TADV 9 12 9 8 12 9 12 6 -3 0 3 0 -4 -9 -7 -6 2 LAND (KM) 1256 1251 1258 1225 1167 1066 1023 1025 1095 1220 1195 1036 775 472 244 22 3 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.9 22.5 24.3 26.0 27.6 29.2 31.2 33.6 36.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.0 52.8 53.5 54.2 54.9 56.5 58.2 60.2 61.9 63.3 64.0 64.1 64.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 11 13 14 15 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 17 29 37 42 40 32 27 37 39 22 11 20 20 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -21. -26. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 9. 5. 1. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 9. 16. 17. 10. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. 12. 7. 7. 1. -14. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.0 52.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.49 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.98 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.46 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 581.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 15.8% 11.1% 9.3% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.7% 14.9% 9.0% 10.5% 7.2% 6.8% 5.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 7.7% 6.9% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 12.5% 7.7% 6.9% 5.4% 2.3% 1.7% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/17/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 13( 30) 20( 44) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 6( 7) 6( 13) 13( 24) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 86 88 92 92 97 100 103 104 105 104 97 92 92 86 71 55 18HR AGO 85 84 86 90 90 95 98 101 102 103 102 95 90 90 84 69 53 12HR AGO 85 82 81 85 85 90 93 96 97 98 97 90 85 85 79 64 48 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 75 80 83 86 87 88 87 80 75 75 69 54 38 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 71 74 77 78 79 78 71 66 66 60 45 29 IN 6HR 85 86 77 71 68 70 73 76 77 78 77 70 65 65 59 44 28 IN 12HR 85 86 88 79 73 69 72 75 76 77 76 69 64 64 58 43 27