* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 87 86 87 86 88 95 98 97 96 96 94 87 80 72 61 V (KT) LAND 80 85 87 86 87 86 88 95 98 97 96 96 94 87 80 72 54 V (KT) LGEM 80 85 87 88 86 86 89 94 96 94 94 91 89 83 73 56 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 8 14 15 14 16 12 13 5 5 5 16 43 58 62 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 5 3 -1 0 0 -2 0 -4 -1 0 1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 277 284 249 258 260 243 211 179 179 210 280 283 251 274 284 268 243 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.2 27.8 28.1 29.0 29.3 29.0 28.3 27.8 28.1 27.6 28.3 21.6 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 134 129 127 134 138 152 157 152 141 134 139 133 143 87 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 127 121 119 124 127 140 143 136 123 117 121 115 122 78 69 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -50.1 -49.7 -49.7 -49.5 -50.6 -51.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 50 48 47 44 44 40 42 42 47 55 57 48 46 55 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 29 29 31 31 35 39 41 40 39 40 40 39 40 41 42 850 MB ENV VOR 88 91 93 80 81 66 62 63 54 53 80 92 92 48 -63 -136 -57 200 MB DIV 88 82 80 67 62 59 34 39 0 11 -4 16 -17 -15 15 54 61 700-850 TADV 9 5 4 11 13 11 10 9 14 1 0 -1 3 6 38 34 12 LAND (KM) 1264 1308 1336 1319 1313 1271 1160 1072 1023 1051 1160 1300 1148 882 578 288 -21 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.3 19.0 20.5 22.0 23.5 25.0 26.7 28.4 30.2 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.3 50.0 50.7 51.4 52.2 53.8 55.3 57.0 58.9 60.9 62.4 63.4 63.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 11 10 11 13 15 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 19 17 21 40 38 28 32 39 21 16 28 19 46 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 7. 2. -4. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. -0. 3. 9. 11. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 8. 15. 18. 17. 16. 16. 14. 7. 0. -8. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.1 49.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.55 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.73 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.15 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.40 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 493.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.1% 17.9% 12.8% 10.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.0% 22.7% 13.1% 13.0% 6.2% 13.3% 6.1% 2.6% Bayesian: 27.1% 31.6% 13.2% 7.5% 1.6% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 19.4% 24.0% 13.0% 10.2% 5.6% 5.2% 2.1% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 10( 16) 10( 25) 10( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 6 5( 11) 3( 13) 7( 19) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 85 87 86 87 86 88 95 98 97 96 96 94 87 80 72 54 18HR AGO 80 79 81 80 81 80 82 89 92 91 90 90 88 81 74 66 48 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 76 75 77 84 87 86 85 85 83 76 69 61 43 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 71 70 72 79 82 81 80 80 78 71 64 56 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 85 76 70 67 65 67 74 77 76 75 75 73 66 59 51 33 IN 12HR 80 85 87 78 72 68 70 77 80 79 78 78 76 69 62 54 36