* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 56 48 40 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 66 56 48 40 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 67 60 52 45 36 32 32 34 36 37 36 35 32 30 30 30 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 51 55 51 50 36 21 22 25 24 31 26 27 31 24 13 40 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 6 5 4 -1 1 2 2 -3 0 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 210 217 222 227 235 266 284 311 343 10 33 43 50 48 356 261 230 SST (C) 21.7 21.6 21.5 19.5 20.3 19.5 21.6 22.8 23.9 25.1 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 91 90 88 80 81 77 85 91 97 105 105 109 112 114 115 117 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 82 79 72 72 69 75 79 83 88 88 90 91 93 94 95 96 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -50.3 -51.0 -52.3 -52.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -54.2 -54.9 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.8 2.1 3.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 29 27 26 29 33 33 31 26 26 26 27 28 32 34 41 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 39 39 38 37 34 30 26 22 21 20 19 20 20 19 19 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 25 9 -14 0 -3 8 -2 39 55 60 51 55 44 82 106 43 24 200 MB DIV 28 41 31 29 -5 -13 -23 -63 -69 -50 -23 -2 -3 -13 17 -6 -3 700-850 TADV -53 -51 -53 -35 -19 -15 -16 -19 -11 -4 0 0 -1 -4 9 -8 -8 LAND (KM) 669 804 988 1137 1291 1499 1642 1772 1899 2027 2047 1999 1974 1961 1943 1930 1913 LAT (DEG N) 42.6 43.7 44.7 45.1 45.5 44.7 42.5 40.0 37.9 36.2 35.0 34.1 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 43.8 40.7 38.4 36.2 33.8 33.2 33.2 33.3 33.2 33.1 33.0 33.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 25 21 16 12 9 12 11 9 8 5 4 2 2 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 27 CX,CY: 23/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -22. -28. -34. -39. -41. -44. -46. -49. -49. -50. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. -20. -21. -23. -24. -24. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -17. -23. -28. -31. -33. -34. -34. -33. -33. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -19. -27. -35. -48. -63. -75. -83. -87. -90. -91. -94. -97. -98. -95. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 42.6 46.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 66.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 516.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.34 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 66 56 48 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 64 56 48 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 63 55 42 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 57 44 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT