* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 91 92 92 89 86 88 90 88 90 86 85 85 81 76 69 V (KT) LAND 80 87 91 92 92 89 86 88 90 88 90 86 85 85 81 76 69 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 91 92 91 87 86 88 90 93 94 93 90 88 82 74 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 7 11 16 17 16 17 8 6 5 11 24 45 55 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 6 7 0 2 -2 0 -3 1 -4 -2 3 1 -1 -9 SHEAR DIR 257 287 251 235 236 252 234 223 202 189 268 303 246 235 235 233 212 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.1 28.1 28.2 29.0 29.3 28.8 27.8 27.2 27.9 28.0 27.2 17.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 134 130 125 138 140 152 157 149 134 127 137 139 130 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 127 126 122 117 127 128 139 142 131 117 111 120 121 111 70 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -51.3 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 -50.0 -49.9 -50.8 -51.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 8 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 50 48 46 46 41 41 42 43 48 56 61 57 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 29 28 27 29 29 33 36 36 39 38 39 40 41 42 45 850 MB ENV VOR 68 83 82 86 80 59 51 48 44 33 27 58 81 79 56 7 46 200 MB DIV 93 81 83 92 67 35 36 56 0 13 0 24 0 60 28 88 122 700-850 TADV 6 6 3 4 7 11 10 13 14 5 0 0 2 8 28 22 -5 LAND (KM) 1227 1261 1301 1344 1330 1314 1251 1156 1079 1074 1123 1232 1367 1138 809 483 119 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.1 19.5 21.0 22.4 23.9 25.7 27.3 28.9 31.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.3 49.9 50.5 51.2 52.7 54.1 55.5 57.2 59.0 60.6 61.8 62.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 12 15 18 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 29 23 20 19 17 26 42 37 26 32 33 13 12 18 20 15 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 2. 5. 4. 8. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 12. 12. 9. 6. 8. 10. 8. 10. 6. 5. 5. 1. -4. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.4 48.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 12.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.58 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.16 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.56 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 465.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.40 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.1% 40.5% 32.5% 23.2% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.4% 32.9% 22.4% 19.7% 6.5% 14.0% 7.7% 2.8% Bayesian: 64.9% 39.1% 34.9% 27.3% 10.2% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 42.1% 37.5% 29.9% 23.4% 9.8% 5.4% 2.6% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 12( 18) 13( 29) 11( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 22( 35) 6( 39) 8( 44) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 87 91 92 92 89 86 88 90 88 90 86 85 85 81 76 69 18HR AGO 80 79 83 84 84 81 78 80 82 80 82 78 77 77 73 68 61 12HR AGO 80 77 76 77 77 74 71 73 75 73 75 71 70 70 66 61 54 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 67 64 66 68 66 68 64 63 63 59 54 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 87 78 72 69 66 63 65 67 65 67 63 62 62 58 53 46 IN 12HR 80 87 91 82 76 72 69 71 73 71 73 69 68 68 64 59 52