* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 88 82 75 63 51 40 29 25 22 21 21 22 23 22 18 V (KT) LAND 90 79 64 51 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 90 93 68 53 42 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 26 27 32 34 47 50 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 0 1 0 -6 -1 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 264 270 258 250 254 242 243 240 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.2 28.6 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 153 157 157 154 155 145 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 124 127 130 131 130 131 123 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 4 4 2 5 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 65 67 65 63 54 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 23 20 16 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 0 25 28 13 68 55 66 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 47 62 73 64 68 59 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 11 17 15 20 9 -5 -9 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 39 0 -39 -78 -129 -261 -186 -94 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.3 30.7 31.1 31.5 32.4 33.2 33.7 34.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.8 87.5 87.2 86.7 86.3 84.8 82.7 80.3 77.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 7 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 28 31 7 4 4 4 4 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -21. -22. -24. -27. -28. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. -24. -27. -32. -32. -30. -30. -29. -29. -28. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -15. -22. -27. -28. -30. -31. -31. -30. -29. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -8. -15. -27. -39. -50. -61. -65. -68. -69. -69. -68. -67. -68. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 29.9 87.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 41.0 to 7.4 0.15 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.63 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.53 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 14.2% 10.2% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 11.7% 6.3% 2.5% 0.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 14.5% 0.4% 0.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.6% 8.8% 5.6% 4.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 0( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 79 64 51 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 90 89 74 61 51 41 38 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 12HR AGO 90 87 86 73 63 53 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 70 60 57 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 61 58 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT