* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 78 67 56 47 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 78 67 56 47 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 78 67 59 51 40 34 32 33 35 36 36 34 31 28 27 25 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 49 50 54 51 49 25 22 25 27 25 31 28 37 30 21 28 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 9 8 7 1 0 3 1 1 -2 2 -5 -4 1 -11 -8 SHEAR DIR 214 215 216 227 230 248 275 293 327 352 19 29 58 72 44 335 334 SST (C) 26.5 20.3 22.6 21.8 19.8 20.4 21.5 21.8 22.9 24.2 25.2 25.8 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 85 94 90 80 80 84 86 91 98 105 110 114 115 115 117 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 79 85 80 73 70 74 76 78 83 88 91 94 94 94 96 97 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -52.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.7 2.9 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 34 29 26 26 29 32 33 29 26 25 25 26 29 30 37 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 37 35 35 32 28 24 21 20 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 850 MB ENV VOR 36 20 18 -19 -2 -12 -12 -1 33 24 12 22 23 17 38 44 -16 200 MB DIV 50 31 45 27 35 -1 -31 -30 -54 -72 -29 -25 6 10 0 -11 -32 700-850 TADV -28 -39 -54 -36 -33 -28 -20 -21 -15 -7 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 -8 LAND (KM) 638 653 776 940 1115 1360 1520 1661 1770 1870 1966 2046 2107 2132 2144 2126 2109 LAT (DEG N) 41.2 42.4 43.5 44.3 45.0 45.0 43.5 41.2 39.2 37.6 36.2 35.0 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.8 47.5 44.3 41.5 38.8 35.5 34.2 33.8 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.3 34.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 27 24 21 16 9 10 11 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 25 CX,CY: 22/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -25. -34. -42. -49. -53. -56. -58. -60. -61. -62. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -16. -20. -24. -25. -24. -24. -22. -22. -22. -24. -25. -24. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -20. -26. -30. -32. -33. -33. -32. -31. -28. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -18. -29. -38. -53. -66. -77. -86. -90. -93. -95. -97.-101.-101. -99.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 41.2 50.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 69.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 0.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 598.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 88.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.07 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 3( 13) 0( 13) 0( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 78 67 56 47 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 73 62 53 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 70 61 46 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 66 51 38 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 51 38 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT