* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 70 67 57 47 37 27 24 21 19 19 19 19 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 54 44 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 74 72 55 45 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 27 27 26 27 30 46 54 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 -2 1 0 0 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 272 266 255 246 247 239 245 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 156 160 162 159 158 155 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 128 132 135 133 133 129 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 1 4 4 1 4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 60 63 67 68 66 60 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 24 24 22 17 14 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 -6 3 32 27 29 68 69 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 59 37 64 78 64 74 23 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 19 12 16 17 11 5 5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 70 32 2 -42 -83 -188 -300 -143 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.0 30.3 30.7 31.1 32.0 32.8 33.3 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.0 87.9 87.8 87.5 87.2 86.0 84.2 82.1 79.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 6 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 29 32 34 7 4 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -22. -28. -30. -31. -32. -32. -34. -34. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -22. -27. -29. -30. -31. -31. -31. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -18. -28. -38. -48. -51. -54. -56. -56. -56. -56. -58. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 29.6 88.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.19 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.81 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.25 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.49 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.8% 10.2% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 9.0% 4.5% 2.5% 1.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 8.0% 4.9% 3.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/16/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 72 54 44 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 72 54 44 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 53 43 31 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 55 43 40 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT