* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 72 61 51 36 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 72 61 51 36 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 81 73 63 55 43 35 32 32 33 34 35 34 33 32 30 30 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 49 54 56 50 37 23 23 25 25 32 29 26 24 16 17 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 6 8 3 -1 1 3 3 -2 0 -6 -3 0 0 6 SHEAR DIR 212 215 212 215 222 238 269 283 309 332 1 19 31 58 65 55 90 SST (C) 27.2 26.0 21.2 21.6 22.4 20.5 19.9 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.8 25.6 26.2 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 120 89 90 92 81 78 88 90 94 103 109 114 118 116 115 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 108 82 82 82 72 70 76 78 80 87 92 95 98 97 96 95 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -50.4 -50.8 -51.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 37 34 31 27 28 32 31 31 28 27 26 27 33 40 44 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 39 36 34 34 31 26 24 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 21 32 20 9 -17 -10 -13 -12 38 29 29 31 22 -9 -40 -52 -78 200 MB DIV 108 45 29 37 20 3 -11 -23 -68 -73 -50 -25 -3 -3 -11 -11 -47 700-850 TADV -41 -47 -62 -71 -39 -23 -20 -12 -18 -20 -6 0 0 4 -2 10 -10 LAND (KM) 745 631 646 786 980 1283 1473 1612 1727 1845 1969 2060 1999 1948 1922 1913 1921 LAT (DEG N) 40.0 41.3 42.6 43.7 44.7 45.5 44.6 42.5 40.4 38.7 37.0 35.3 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.0 50.6 47.3 44.0 40.8 36.3 34.2 33.6 33.5 33.3 33.2 33.1 33.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 27 28 27 26 21 12 9 11 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -22. -31. -40. -47. -51. -54. -56. -58. -59. -60. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -16. -20. -27. -28. -26. -26. -24. -23. -24. -24. -25. -23. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -16. -21. -27. -30. -32. -30. -29. -29. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -13. -24. -34. -49. -60. -72. -80. -87. -91. -92. -91. -93. -94. -94. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 40.0 54.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 67.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.83 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 600.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/16/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 4( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 80 72 61 51 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 76 65 55 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 70 60 45 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 65 50 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 51 39 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT