* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 65 64 62 55 45 35 27 24 21 20 20 18 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 68 65 64 52 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 67 64 62 51 36 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 26 29 27 25 32 40 54 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 2 0 4 -1 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 268 270 272 253 250 237 236 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 156 159 164 159 157 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 125 128 131 136 132 130 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 3 1 4 2 5 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 62 65 70 68 66 55 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 24 25 24 20 16 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 24 -7 -3 31 11 71 56 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 94 57 30 62 83 83 46 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 13 13 20 20 11 -2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 95 71 38 5 -12 -114 -211 -290 -208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.6 31.4 32.2 32.7 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.1 88.1 88.1 88.0 87.8 87.1 85.9 84.4 82.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 29 29 33 36 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -19. -26. -28. -30. -31. -32. -33. -35. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -1. -3. -7. -14. -21. -26. -28. -29. -30. -30. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -8. -15. -25. -35. -43. -46. -49. -50. -50. -52. -54. -56. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.3 88.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.24 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.79 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.27 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.46 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.67 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 13.2% 9.1% 7.7% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.2% 2.8% 2.1% 1.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.5% 4.0% 3.3% 2.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 2( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 65 64 52 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 66 65 53 38 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 53 38 31 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 48 33 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT