* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 77 71 60 42 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 77 71 60 42 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 83 78 70 60 46 37 32 32 34 35 34 32 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 45 45 50 55 47 22 20 23 28 37 44 41 31 18 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 6 6 6 6 -2 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 206 214 215 212 215 229 248 283 294 319 339 4 6 15 20 24 264 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 25.1 22.4 21.4 19.7 20.0 19.8 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.2 24.7 25.8 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 111 94 89 80 78 77 86 90 93 98 102 111 116 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 100 86 81 73 69 69 75 77 80 83 87 94 98 97 97 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.1 1.4 2.2 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 39 38 34 32 29 30 32 36 33 31 31 31 34 41 50 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 39 40 36 35 32 28 24 21 19 17 18 17 18 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 36 18 10 -5 -18 -21 -8 21 24 14 24 13 -3 -34 -47 200 MB DIV 127 96 55 32 57 25 -5 -30 -27 -58 -76 -55 -38 -9 -3 -12 -5 700-850 TADV -25 -35 -37 -61 -63 -30 -18 -8 -18 -16 -15 -9 2 2 4 7 3 LAND (KM) 810 739 640 671 808 1141 1370 1503 1635 1771 1907 1977 1950 1834 1767 1762 1757 LAT (DEG N) 38.8 40.1 41.3 42.5 43.7 45.3 45.6 44.6 42.8 40.8 39.1 37.6 35.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.5 53.4 50.3 47.0 43.7 38.3 35.1 33.8 33.1 32.6 32.1 31.8 31.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 25 27 27 27 24 16 8 8 10 9 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 26 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 22 CX,CY: 18/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -20. -30. -38. -46. -50. -54. -57. -60. -61. -61. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -18. -26. -27. -26. -25. -23. -23. -26. -28. -29. -29. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -21. -26. -31. -34. -33. -33. -31. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -25. -43. -56. -67. -77. -84. -91. -98. -99.-102.-100. -97. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 38.8 56.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 63.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 601.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 6( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 82 77 71 60 42 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 79 73 62 44 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 75 64 46 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 64 46 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 48 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT