* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 68 71 73 76 79 85 89 91 91 95 96 96 94 86 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 68 71 73 76 79 85 89 91 91 95 96 96 94 86 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 61 66 69 74 78 82 87 90 91 91 94 96 96 91 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 3 3 7 13 10 11 11 15 8 3 5 16 25 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 7 6 8 7 4 0 1 0 -2 -5 -1 -5 -7 6 7 SHEAR DIR 30 50 52 64 263 304 271 263 241 219 211 175 217 221 234 237 250 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 132 135 142 148 150 157 151 150 150 150 148 135 137 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 128 127 129 135 140 140 145 138 137 134 132 129 116 117 114 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.0 -50.2 -49.5 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.2 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 55 53 53 48 45 45 43 42 42 42 46 56 53 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 29 30 29 27 28 29 31 34 35 35 38 38 40 41 41 850 MB ENV VOR 66 76 72 66 65 74 68 61 62 64 52 40 40 79 108 113 138 200 MB DIV 111 146 131 97 48 28 23 30 25 41 1 15 9 41 21 58 -2 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -3 -1 0 3 9 10 10 11 13 7 3 3 8 19 25 LAND (KM) 1214 1189 1176 1190 1208 1267 1249 1240 1160 1069 1000 986 1025 1135 1295 1356 1164 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.6 17.9 19.2 20.6 21.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.5 46.4 47.4 48.2 49.0 50.6 52.0 53.4 54.9 56.2 57.7 59.2 60.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 27 27 28 27 25 37 48 50 39 26 31 33 31 15 22 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -0. -0. 2. 5. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 21. 23. 26. 29. 35. 39. 41. 41. 45. 46. 46. 44. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.4 45.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 9.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.71 5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.49 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.56 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.68 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 44.5% 30.3% 15.4% 10.3% 21.4% 23.1% 25.3% Logistic: 15.3% 42.0% 31.2% 21.1% 6.9% 16.0% 9.0% 5.0% Bayesian: 10.0% 22.8% 18.5% 3.0% 1.8% 15.7% 21.2% 1.1% Consensus: 13.0% 36.4% 26.7% 13.2% 6.3% 17.7% 17.8% 10.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 4( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 8( 8) 4( 12) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 62 68 71 73 76 79 85 89 91 91 95 96 96 94 86 18HR AGO 50 49 55 61 64 66 69 72 78 82 84 84 88 89 89 87 79 12HR AGO 50 47 46 52 55 57 60 63 69 73 75 75 79 80 80 78 70 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 45 48 51 57 61 63 63 67 68 68 66 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT