* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/15/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 87 83 78 58 41 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 89 87 83 78 58 41 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 89 86 81 60 45 35 31 31 34 35 34 32 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 37 47 48 58 50 20 18 22 32 42 49 50 41 39 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 10 2 3 8 2 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 210 202 201 212 216 221 227 243 279 294 332 347 360 8 10 3 1 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.3 23.2 21.7 19.2 20.6 21.6 22.0 23.1 23.7 24.4 24.8 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 132 130 133 97 88 76 80 84 86 92 95 99 101 102 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 120 118 116 118 87 77 68 70 73 75 79 80 83 84 85 87 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -53.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 37 35 28 28 31 33 32 31 29 30 32 35 36 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 38 38 40 41 39 37 33 28 24 21 20 18 18 19 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 25 32 45 6 -16 -26 -27 -8 25 24 8 13 32 16 16 200 MB DIV 75 116 113 98 53 41 32 0 -27 -36 -72 -67 -52 -16 -20 -25 -23 700-850 TADV 5 0 -24 -30 -31 -46 -47 -18 -10 -9 -9 -7 -5 -7 -3 1 4 LAND (KM) 863 840 794 758 634 700 1004 1221 1364 1496 1643 1803 1923 2017 2038 1999 1962 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 37.5 38.7 39.9 41.1 43.4 45.2 45.8 45.1 43.7 42.0 40.1 38.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.7 59.5 57.2 54.4 51.6 45.5 40.2 37.0 35.4 34.4 33.5 32.7 32.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 23 25 25 23 16 8 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 22 15 18 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 17 CX,CY: 12/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -17. -27. -37. -46. -52. -57. -61. -65. -67. -68. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -11. -15. -25. -32. -30. -27. -23. -22. -23. -26. -29. -31. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 0. -5. -13. -19. -24. -28. -30. -29. -27. -26. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -12. -32. -49. -58. -68. -75. -83. -89. -96.-100.-101.-104.-107. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 36.3 61.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 672.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 10( 21) 6( 26) 0( 26) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 87 83 78 58 41 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 87 83 78 58 41 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 82 77 57 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 55 38 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 51 34 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 60 43 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 87 78 72 68 51 42 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS