* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 92 90 86 70 51 41 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 92 92 90 86 70 51 41 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 92 94 92 89 74 53 40 32 31 33 36 37 36 34 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 18 27 39 47 56 54 35 22 16 23 28 34 41 42 40 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 6 7 3 4 8 0 -3 0 3 2 0 1 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 213 214 208 204 216 213 231 236 263 276 307 327 355 20 21 26 10 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.6 21.2 21.8 19.1 20.2 20.3 22.3 23.0 23.9 24.5 25.2 25.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 133 136 88 89 77 79 79 89 93 98 101 105 109 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 121 119 122 81 80 70 70 70 77 80 84 86 88 91 95 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.5 -51.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.9 3.0 2.2 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 40 41 40 39 38 33 26 31 35 37 35 30 28 31 31 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 37 39 40 39 36 35 30 25 22 20 18 17 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 33 36 42 26 34 29 -14 -19 -34 -33 25 41 30 38 40 54 54 200 MB DIV 48 88 119 126 101 30 21 -2 -8 -17 -51 -55 -45 -19 -5 -5 -51 700-850 TADV 3 5 0 -26 -25 -74 -47 -29 -9 -1 -15 -20 -7 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 934 877 842 817 780 633 856 1136 1336 1499 1662 1840 1948 1988 1924 1901 1888 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 36.3 37.4 38.6 39.7 42.1 44.4 45.9 46.0 44.9 43.0 40.5 38.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.3 61.5 59.6 57.0 54.4 48.4 42.6 38.1 35.4 33.7 32.6 31.9 31.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 21 23 24 25 21 13 8 9 11 12 11 8 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 21 16 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 15 CX,CY: 9/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -13. -23. -33. -42. -48. -53. -57. -61. -63. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -7. -12. -21. -28. -30. -28. -24. -21. -21. -22. -24. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -1. -9. -16. -22. -25. -28. -29. -30. -30. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -4. -20. -39. -49. -60. -68. -76. -81. -85. -91. -95. -98.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 35.1 63.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 719.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 13( 23) 10( 31) 4( 34) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 92 92 90 86 70 51 41 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 89 87 83 67 48 38 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 80 64 45 35 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 60 41 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 55 36 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 92 83 77 74 64 45 35 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 92 92 83 77 73 54 44 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS