* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VICKY AL212020 09/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 37 34 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 37 34 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 41 38 34 27 21 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 30 35 50 61 56 40 33 25 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 0 -8 -8 -4 -8 -6 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 276 276 273 273 264 249 261 266 313 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.0 25.7 26.0 25.7 26.6 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 112 112 113 114 111 113 110 119 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 102 103 103 104 101 103 99 106 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 55 52 51 48 45 39 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 15 14 10 9 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 9 4 18 36 23 17 14 5 0 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 68 42 26 0 28 21 1 -2 -2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 16 28 26 11 5 5 0 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1293 1339 1388 1465 1545 1751 1976 2200 2392 2320 2237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.2 29.8 30.3 31.1 31.9 33.9 36.1 38.3 40.2 41.8 43.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -23. -27. -31. -35. -37. -39. -41. -43. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -19. -21. -24. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -6. -10. -18. -27. -34. -37. -42. -46. -48. -49. -51. -49. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.0 29.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL212020 VICKY 09/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.9 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL212020 VICKY 09/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 37 34 30 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 36 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT