* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 95 95 91 82 64 54 43 34 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 93 95 95 91 82 64 54 43 34 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 94 96 97 95 85 60 46 36 32 33 36 37 37 36 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 20 28 39 47 59 48 22 16 19 25 28 34 37 45 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 7 7 3 5 3 -3 0 1 1 5 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 208 213 212 203 204 212 214 222 235 274 287 317 345 7 13 27 27 SST (C) 28.7 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.8 21.8 20.1 19.5 19.1 21.0 22.7 23.7 24.5 25.0 25.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 139 138 137 134 127 90 81 77 76 83 91 96 101 104 108 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 120 122 122 120 114 82 73 69 68 73 79 83 85 87 90 96 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.7 2.1 1.8 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 36 39 41 40 38 34 26 27 30 36 32 27 28 35 37 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 36 38 38 40 37 37 33 28 24 21 18 16 15 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 20 31 34 37 23 34 10 -13 -32 -42 -25 22 32 23 38 48 53 200 MB DIV 64 48 79 129 131 53 44 40 -2 -7 -14 -44 -71 -20 -9 -4 -20 700-850 TADV 3 2 5 -4 -22 -42 -56 -33 -10 -5 -12 -12 -8 -2 3 3 8 LAND (KM) 993 949 870 845 798 610 714 1028 1255 1412 1569 1732 1891 2024 2021 1991 1961 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 35.1 36.2 37.5 38.7 41.4 44.0 46.0 46.5 45.7 43.9 41.4 39.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.4 63.1 61.8 59.5 57.1 51.1 44.8 39.5 36.3 34.5 33.3 32.7 32.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 19 22 25 27 24 16 9 8 11 13 11 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 29 20 19 21 17 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 798 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -12. -21. -31. -40. -46. -51. -56. -60. -62. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -4. -7. -16. -23. -27. -26. -22. -19. -19. -19. -21. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 3. 3. -3. -10. -16. -22. -26. -28. -29. -31. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 1. -8. -26. -36. -47. -56. -65. -74. -80. -84. -88. -95.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 33.9 64.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.22 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.55 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.59 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 782.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.04 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.60 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 12.1% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 2.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 4.8% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 17( 27) 12( 36) 8( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 93 95 95 91 82 64 54 43 34 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 91 91 87 78 60 50 39 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 82 73 55 45 34 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 76 67 49 39 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 62 44 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 93 84 78 75 69 51 41 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 93 95 86 80 76 58 48 37 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS