* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/14/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 88 92 94 95 90 75 63 56 45 36 28 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 84 88 92 94 95 90 75 63 56 45 36 28 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 84 89 94 98 98 89 65 49 39 34 35 38 39 37 34 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 6 13 20 33 48 61 52 23 13 15 25 42 46 42 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 1 4 9 5 8 3 -4 0 0 3 0 6 2 2 SHEAR DIR 43 236 228 217 209 206 221 221 232 237 269 296 324 355 7 18 24 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.5 21.6 21.2 21.2 20.3 22.2 22.6 23.1 24.5 25.5 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 148 140 138 134 135 88 85 83 79 87 90 93 101 109 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 121 125 120 119 119 118 80 76 73 70 75 78 80 86 92 96 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -51.5 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 34 35 37 42 41 40 36 30 28 31 35 34 32 29 32 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 32 34 35 40 41 39 38 34 28 24 21 18 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 16 32 30 39 53 26 25 -15 -22 -52 -40 2 1 22 21 200 MB DIV 3 38 62 64 73 119 64 42 11 -6 -1 -18 -65 -90 -46 -27 1 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 0 0 -19 -33 -43 -43 -13 -7 -5 -20 -10 -5 -3 1 LAND (KM) 1131 1093 1008 964 896 835 701 646 842 1044 1234 1416 1585 1761 1919 2050 2029 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.8 33.8 34.9 35.9 38.1 40.4 42.6 44.2 45.3 45.2 44.0 42.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.4 64.3 64.3 63.1 62.0 57.9 52.7 47.3 42.9 39.6 37.1 35.3 34.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 14 16 22 23 20 15 11 9 9 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 26 29 20 17 17 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -11. -17. -23. -29. -34. -38. -43. -45. -47. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -15. -20. -19. -17. -16. -17. -21. -24. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 7. 5. -1. -10. -17. -21. -25. -28. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 14. 15. 10. -5. -17. -24. -35. -44. -52. -62. -72. -76. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.8 64.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.70 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.43 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 770.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 15.1% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 4.8% 4.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.9% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 6.6% 5.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/14/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 11( 17) 16( 30) 17( 42) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 88 92 94 95 90 75 63 56 45 36 28 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 83 87 89 90 85 70 58 51 40 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 80 82 83 78 63 51 44 33 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 72 73 68 53 41 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 65 60 45 33 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 84 88 79 73 69 64 49 37 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS